Marco Rubio is set to take on a challenging and high-profile role as Secretary of State under President-elect Donald Trump. While Rubio’s confirmation by the Senate seems assured, with bipartisan support already emerging, the real test will come after he steps into the job.
Rubio’s journey in this role is expected to be anything but smooth, with experts predicting that he may not last long in this prestigious yet perilous position.
A Tough Start
Rubio’s challenges begin with his tenuous position in Trump’s administration. Unlike some of Trump’s other nominees, Rubio is perceived by diplomats and foreign officials as a knowledgeable and approachable figure. However, this moderate reputation makes him a target for Trump’s hardcore MAGA base, who view Rubio with suspicion due to his hawkish and interventionist tendencies.
Adding to this, Trump has already appointed several special envoys whose roles overlap with those traditionally handled by the State Department. These appointees, some of whom enjoy direct access to Trump, may undermine Rubio’s authority.
One notable figure is Richard Grenell, a staunch MAGA supporter who many speculate could eventually replace Rubio. Grenell’s initial appointment as “presidential envoy for special missions” already signals competition within the administration.
Navigating Internal Politics
Rubio faces the delicate task of managing relationships within Trump’s team. The president and his inner circle have long been skeptical of the State Department, often sidelining its initiatives in favor of White House-led policies.
This mistrust has eroded the department’s influence over the years. Rubio will need to tread carefully to maintain his standing with both Trump and the career diplomats under his leadership.
Complicating matters further is Rubio’s past rivalry with Trump during the 2016 presidential race, where the two exchanged memorable barbs. Although they have since mended fences, policy differences could resurface. Rubio’s strong stance on human rights, for example, contrasts sharply with Trump’s more transactional approach to foreign policy.
The Shrinking Role of Foggy Bottom
The State Department has seen its influence wane over decades, often overshadowed by the more agile National Security Council and the well-funded Pentagon.
Under Trump, this trend is likely to continue. Rubio’s ability to project strength as Secretary of State will depend heavily on his relationship with key figures like GOP Representative Mike Waltz, Trump’s pick for National Security Adviser. While the two share similar views on many issues, maintaining alignment in a volatile administration will be no easy feat.
Managing Expectations
His long-term ambitions may also shape Rubio’s tenure. If he harbors aspirations for the presidency, he might choose to leave the role early to focus on building a campaign. Traditionally, Secretaries of State avoid domestic politics to maintain the perception of impartiality, but the lure of higher office could influence Rubio’s decisions.
If Rubio intends to stay for the entirety of Trump’s term, he will need to adopt a strategy of resilience and adaptability. This means enduring criticism from internal rivals, accepting Trump’s unpredictable leadership style, and prioritizing the administration’s goals over personal or departmental initiatives.
Lessons from the Past
The experience of Rex Tillerson, Trump’s first Secretary of State, offers a cautionary tale. Tillerson, a former ExxonMobil CEO, faced public humiliation and limited influence before being unceremoniously dismissed after just over a year. Rubio’s challenge will be to avoid a similar fate while navigating the complex dynamics of Trump’s administration.
What Lies Ahead
Ultimately, Rubio’s success as Secretary of State will depend on his ability to balance competing interests within the administration, manage expectations from U.S. diplomats and foreign allies, and maintain his political ambitions without clashing with Trump’s agenda. While some observers believe Rubio could outlast Tillerson, the consensus remains that his tenure may be short-lived.
As Rubio prepares to step into one of the most demanding roles in government, the world will be watching closely to see how he handles the challenges ahead. Whether he emerges as a lasting force in American foreign policy or becomes another casualty of Trump’s unpredictable leadership remains to be seen.
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